Zero to hero: What BJP's history can teach AAP
What exit polls show: Modi finishing what Vajpayee began
The most important takeout from the rash of exit polls now being unleashed on TV channels is not the impending NDA victory, but the scale of the Modi wave and the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party as the new pivot of Indian politics. The polls project 270-282 seats for the BJP-led NDA, comfortably close to the half-way mark. Which means there's no formal need for allies. But allies there will be aplently - as we shall see. Despite a hard-to-live-down Hindutva hardliner image, Narendra Modi has taken the BJP mainstream and centre-stage, completing a process begun by Atal Behari Vajpayee in the late 1990s. The difference between 1998 and 2014 is this: 15 years ago, the hard and soft parts resided in two separate individuals: Vajpayee was Vikas Purush (development icon), and LK Advani the Loh Purush (iron man). File photo of Atal Behari Vajpayee, Narendra Modi and LK Advani. AFP. This time, the Loh and Vikas personalities have come together in Modi to show the Power of One. This is why the wave is stronger than in 1998/1999. The BJP's need to present itself as two different personalities has ended. And by winning the 2014 election – we still have to wait for four more days to confirm if the exit polls are close to the truth, but the trends are clear – Modi has effectively mainstreamed the BJP despite his so-called "divisive" personality. If the Congress was the pivot of national politics till almost the mid-1990s, and which re-emerged once more in 2009, in large parts of India it is now being replaced by the BJP. A caveat first: opinion and exit polls have been wrong before, most notoriously in 2004, when a predicted NDA victory turned out to a UPA celebration. This time, too, there could be some surprises, especially when vote shares are cavalierly converted to seats for parties in various states. One need not even be surprised if the NDA marginally falls short of 272 or the BJP stops at around 200 seats. However, that would still leave the BJP as the new pivot of Indian politics. Reason: seats are not the point, vote shares are. The most interesting bit of stats in the Lokniti-CSDS-CNN-IBN post-poll (which is not an exit poll, but a poll done after the elections by asking people how they had voted) is this: Narendra Modi has taken the BJP to its highest ever vote share of 34 percent, and the NDA to a spectacular 40.5 percent (against the UPA's 32.8 percent in 2009). Now, even if this number is off by about 2-3 percent, it would still leave the BJP as the party for whom one-third of India has voted – something no party has achieved after 1984. The break-up shown by the post-poll survey is 34 percent for BJP, and 6.5 percent for its allies, making for 40.5 percent in all. If you can pull 30 percent on your own, you can pull in allies – and scare some of them into backing you. For the Congress, the figures are 22 percent (one of its lowest totals). Together with the allies, it gets another 3.5 percent, for a total of 25.5 percent. There is a huge 15 percent gap in vote share between NDA and UPA – and a large part of this cannot but be because of the Modi effect. In theory, this kind of vote difference should be enough to give the BJP a majority of its own and the NDA an overwhelming dominance of the 16th Lok Sabha (16 May could still give us this upside), but this is where the exit polls cannot help us. A large chunk of the BJP vote comes from places where it won't get too many seats. For example, states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. In Kerala, the Lokniti polls says that the BJP may have pulled in 10 percent of the vote. It probably won't get any seats, though Thiruvananthapuram is an outside possibility. In West Bengal, BJP gets 15 percent all on its own, displacing the Congress (with 13 percent) as the No 3 force behind Trinamool and Left Front. Again the party may not get more than a seat or two in this state. But the key is percentage share. A 15 percent vote share in Bengal, with its 62.6 million voters, would, with a 70 percent voter turnout, give you a total of 6.5 million BJP votes in Bengal. But they don't yield seats – not more than one or two. But you have shaking power. When you have 10-15-20 percent of the vote, you have a base to build on. Also, this level of vote share makes you a worthwhile alliance partner – or a potential threat - locally. For example, Naveen Patnaik unceremoniously dumped the BJP as partner in Odisha in 2009 due to the Kandhamal riots. The BJP was wiped out in that election. This time it is back as the No 2 party in Odisha with a 29 percent post-poll vote share. The next time, it will be able to mount a challenge in the state either by itself or by tying up with other regional splinter parties. A decent vote share can be used as leverage to get partners on board for the NDA. Modi himself hinted at this during his Times Now interview when Arnab Goswami asked him whether he was shooing away Mamata Banerjee by attacking her too much in election rallies. Arnab asks him: "Modiji, don't you feel you should have kept the door open with Mamata and Mayawati?" Modi replies: "This can also be a strategy to keep the door open." Goswami was foxed: "I didn't understand." Modi replies enigmatically: "Whatever I wanted to explain, I have. This can also be a tactic to keep the door open." The point Modi probably wanted to underscore was this: while having low strength in a state may appear non-threatening to a potential ally, showing that you have teeth and capable of inflicting damage on your opponent is a way of telling her 'I can do you damage, unless.." This is how Modi may be keeping the door open for allies. This is the bottomline message of the exit and post-polls. Modi has made BJP bankable, both as a powerful ally and a potential adversary who can do you harm. Love him or hate him, Modi has effectively ended the BJP's isolation. Modi has shown that power is the key to allies, not a good smile or chummy attitudes. The BJP has moved centre-stage with this election. Modi is completing the job Vajpayee began – in his own style. ALSO SEE Exit polls 2014 live: Ab ki baar Modi sarkar, say all poll surveys Exit polls 2014: Yes this is a Modi wave, but not the end of AAP RELATED VIDEOS AAP: 'BJP goons' are responsible for the attack on party workers in Varanasi Independent India's first voter keeps his date with the polls Not Modi or BJP's ATM machine, says AdaniQuote: Look forward to working with India's new govt: Obama Analysis: Hindi heartland delivers India to Narendra Modi
US President Barack Obama is looking forward to the formation of a new government in India, once the election results are announced and is pledged to work closely with New Delhi. US President Barack Obama. s looking forward to the formation of a new government in India, once the election results are announced and is pledged to work closely with New Delhi. US President Barack Obama. "We look forward to the formation of a new government once election results are announced and to working closely with India's next administration to make the coming years equally transformative," Obama said in a statement on Monday. Congratulating the people of India on the successful elections, the polling for which concluded on Monday, Obama said, "I congratulate the people of India on concluding their national elections. India has set an example for the world in holding the largest democratic election in history, a vibrant demonstration of our shared values of diversity and freedom". More than 500 million eligible Indian voters exercised their right to franchise to elect some 543 members of Parliament, who would elect the new prime minister. A series of exit polls released at the end of the voting indicated that the BJP-led NDA will form the government as the party under the leadership of its prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, is likely to emerge as the single largest party after the results which are scheduled to be announced on 16 May. The Congress, which has ruled the country for a decade now, has been projected to get around 100 seats. The outgoing prime minister, Manmohan Singh, had announced earlier this year that he would not seek a third term. In his statement, Obama also referred to the strong friendship that the two countries have developed over the last decades, cutting across party lines. "The United States and India have developed a strong friendship and comprehensive partnership over the last two decades, which has made our citizens safer and more prosperous and which has enhanced our ability to work together to solve global challenges," Obama said. PTI
Sonia sends SOS to Maya, Mulayam, Mamata to keep Modi at bay
If you thought the Congress, embarrassed at projections of its worst ever tally in a Lok Sabha election, has its tail between its legs, think again. In a last-ditch attempt to cobble together a government in the hope that the exit polls are at least marginally wrong -- and the NDA falls short of the halfway mark -- the Congress party is reportedly reaching out to "like-minded" parties with the objective of keeping the NDA and BJP from forming the government. And the first three who have come to mind appear to have been the unlikely troika of Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. AFP. A report in The Economic Times says party president Sonia Gandhi "personally reached out to" Mamata Banerjee more than a week ago. The same report said the All India Congress Committee has been in regular touch with BSP chief Mayawati as well as with the Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. Does the math add up for the too-hopeful Congress? The CNN-IBN-CSDS survey predicts 13 to 17 seats for the SP, 10 to 14 for the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. If they score a couple of seats in Madhya Pradesh, the BSP tally could go up to 16. That is around 32-36 seats between the two UP-based parties. The Trinamool Congress could win 25 to 31 seats in WB. If the Congress manages to work out this '3M' formula and manage their internal differences, this could add about 60-odd seats to the Congress's tally. With the best projection of all the exit polls for the UPA putting it at 135, it appears that the math will still not add up, unless the third front or federal front comes together as well to keep Modi out. These third front parties have been clubbed under "others" in most of the exit poll compilations, together expected to win anywhere between 130 to 150 seats. In spite of this, The Economic Times report said the Congress, as the largest anti-BJP party, is reaching out to parties outside the UPA too, "as part of working out a minimum understanding of keeping Modi and the BJP out of power". Mamata has been an ally of the UPA in the past, the latter two -- bitter rivals in Uttar Pradesh -- have both provided outside support to the Congress-led government, though never simultaneously. Sonia reportedly reached out to Mamata just when the latter and Narendra Modi were engaged in an ugly war of words, the West Bengal chief minister calling him a "bhonda" (fool) and a "gadha" (donkey) even as he called her a lioness glued to her chair and plunging West Bengal into chaos in the name of transformation. It was reportedly at Sonia Gandhi's behest that the party is setting up some kind of backchannel discussions with both the Uttar Pradesh leaders . Through the just-concluded election campaign too, while the Samajwadi Party has openly said it would be willing to partner the Congress in order to keep the BJP out, Mayawati has remained tight-lipped. Incidentally, the Congress's campaign in Samajwadi Party-dominated constituencies has also been somewhat low-key, while Modi has used his rallies in Uttar Pradesh to rail against "SaPa and BaSaPa". While there was always speculation that the Congress would try to prop up a minority government against Modi, the party has kept its cards close to its chest. In the recent past, notwithstanding party vice-president Rahul Gandhi's machismo in insisting that the party will form UPA 3, he had in fact confided in party members that he would prefer to sit in opposition if the vote is clearly against the UPA. The "structural changes" that Rahul has emphasised, over and again, may indicate that he prefers to focus on rebuilding the party and a new generation of Congress leaders to spending to the next couple of years playing coalition politics. Given the numbers at hand, Rahul may just get his wish. ALSO SEE What exit polls show: Modi finishing what Vajpayee began in 1998 Obama looking forward to working with Modi-led India sarkaar Congress dismisses exit polls, says will wait for 16 May RELATED VIDEOS AAP: 'BJP goons' are responsible for the attack on party workers in Varanasi Not Modi or BJP's ATM machine, says Adani Even a butcher would be shy of him: Lalu attacks Narendra Modi ..
If you thought the Congress, embarrassed at projections of its worst ever tally in a Lok Sabha election, has its tail between its legs, think again. In a last-ditch attempt to cobble together a government in the hope that the exit polls are at least marginally wrong -- and the NDA falls short of the halfway mark -- the Congress party is reportedly reaching out to "like-minded" parties with the objective of keeping the NDA and BJP from forming the government. And the first three who have come to mind appear to have been the unlikely troika of Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. AFP. A report in The Economic Times says party president Sonia Gandhi "personally reached out to" Mamata Banerjee more than a week ago. The same report said the All India Congress Committee has been in regular touch with BSP chief Mayawati as well as with the Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. Does the math add up for the too-hopeful Congress? The CNN-IBN-CSDS survey predicts 13 to 17 seats for the SP, 10 to 14 for the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. If they score a couple of seats in Madhya Pradesh, the BSP tally could go up to 16. That is around 32-36 seats between the two UP-based parties. The Trinamool Congress could win 25 to 31 seats in WB. If the Congress manages to work out this '3M' formula and manage their internal differences, this could add about 60-odd seats to the Congress's tally. With the best projection of all the exit polls for the UPA putting it at 135, it appears that the math will still not add up, unless the third front or federal front comes together as well to keep Modi out. These third front parties have been clubbed under "others" in most of the exit poll compilations, together expected to win anywhere between 130 to 150 seats. In spite of this, The Economic Times report said the Congress, as the largest anti-BJP party, is reaching out to parties outside the UPA too, "as part of working out a minimum understanding of keeping Modi and the BJP out of power". Mamata has been an ally of the UPA in the past, the latter two -- bitter rivals in Uttar Pradesh -- have both provided outside support to the Congress-led government, though never simultaneously. Sonia reportedly reached out to Mamata just when the latter and Narendra Modi were engaged in an ugly war of words, the West Bengal chief minister calling him a "bhonda" (fool) and a "gadha" (donkey) even as he called her a lioness glued to her chair and plunging West Bengal into chaos in the name of transformation. It was reportedly at Sonia Gandhi's behest that the party is setting up some kind of backchannel discussions with both the Uttar Pradesh leaders . Through the just-concluded election campaign too, while the Samajwadi Party has openly said it would be willing to partner the Congress in order to keep the BJP out, Mayawati has remained tight-lipped. Incidentally, the Congress's campaign in Samajwadi Party-dominated constituencies has also been somewhat low-key, while Modi has used his rallies in Uttar Pradesh to rail against "SaPa and BaSaPa". While there was always speculation that the Congress would try to prop up a minority government against Modi, the party has kept its cards close to its chest. In the recent past, notwithstanding party vice-president Rahul Gandhi's machismo in insisting that the party will form UPA 3, he had in fact confided in party members that he would prefer to sit in opposition if the vote is clearly against the UPA. The "structural changes" that Rahul has emphasised, over and again, may indicate that he prefers to focus on rebuilding the party and a new generation of Congress leaders to spending to the next couple of years playing coalition politics. Given the numbers at hand, Rahul may just get his wish. ALSO SEE What exit polls show: Modi finishing what Vajpayee began in 1998 Obama looking forward to working with Modi-led India sarkaar Congress dismisses exit polls, says will wait for 16 May RELATED VIDEOS AAP: 'BJP goons' are responsible for the attack on party workers in Varanasi Not Modi or BJP's ATM machine, says Adani Even a butcher would be shy of him: Lalu attacks Narendra Modi ..
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